Was the recent Bitcoin rally just temporary?

Bitcoin price decline graphic Is it over already?

The last week’s rally was simply awesome. Congrats to anyone who got a chance to ride the wave along with us. The price started to gain momentum from $320 days before the actual jump took place, but the signs of it happening were all over the place. In just a few days we went from $320 to almost $460 so a correction was bound to happen. In my previous Bitcoin price prediction article I estimated the price to linger in the $410 – $420 area for a few days and then proceed to gain strength once more. Everything was fine for a few days, but looking at the charts today I can say that the correction isn’t really a correction any more, it’s a bearish ride.

FBI – The real market mover

It’s not a coincidence that the price started to fall just when the feds announced that they will be auctioning 50,000 Bitcoins they took from Dread Pirate Roberts, the founder of the biggest black market in the internet history. When you look at the chart you will see that on Monday the market was unsure where to go. I am confident that if it the feds wouldn’t have announced the auction the price would have behaved exactly the way I predicted it previously.

 

Bitcoin macd chart price graph crossing bearishMACD crossing

When you look at the way MACD is crossing you’ll see that the previous cross took place at a much lower point. This gives us a little bit of hope that the overall Bitcoin price trend is still bullish. The $320 area is still our strongest support at this point because we have tested it two times already in the past.

 

RSI indicator for the bitcoinWhat about RSI?

Looking at the RSI it’s pretty clear we are going to go lower from here. Further price movement is now depending on two factors: 1) how many Bitcoins the feds are able to auction and 2) will we reach the oversold market condition before our $320 support or not.

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Introducing virtual currency called VidCoin that you can earn by watching fun videos

What is VidCoin?

VidCoin is an experimental online e-currency that can only be earned by watching short videos on the official VidCoin website.

There is no registration form!

Vidcoin earn bitcoin watching videos
VidCoin uses your unique Facebook identity to securely log you into the members area where you can find videos to watch. Upon logging in for the first time VidCoin will ask for your Bitcoin wallet so that we can make payments to you in the future. Make sure to enter your valid Bitcoin wallet because it can only be changed manually by the administrator later on.

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Correction in the Bitcoin price and what to expect later this month

Bitcoin price movement up trend breakout chart correction formationI underestimated the market

Guess I have underestimated the buyers potential and also the significance of the recent hidden service raid that FBI conducted earlier this week. Just look at that wonderful green bullish candle 🙂 There’s clearly a connection between the raid and the price movement here because last time FBI closed one of the biggest darknet marketplaces and confiscated millions of dollars in Bitcoins the price skyrocketed exactly the same way just a few days later. After they put those coins out for auction the price obviously fell and now we can see the same thing happening all over again. Will they auction these coins as well? Time will tell.

Bitcoin price market chart overbought market condition correction formingOverbought condition

The RSI indicator is showing that the price has moved over the overbought line. This along with the fact that we’ve had a crazy rally means that a price correction is imminent. How far will it fall? There is a very strong support level around the $380 mark, but I highly doubt it’s going to fall that low. A more reasonable target would be the $410-$420 area, where the price may linger for a few days before we have a better chance at entering a long position again. That being said, there’s no reason why you should close your position right now if you’re aiming for something bigger!

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Riding the Bitcoin bulls – Not too late to enter

Riding the bulls

The last few days have simply been amazing. On the 9th of November I published a short article about the bullish movement of Bitcoin and just three days later the price has reached $400 USD.

Bitcoin price chart 400 usd mark bullish bitcoin buy now

So what now? If you look at what happened on the 11th and 10th of November then you can see a great struggle between the bulls and the bears. The market was unsure how to react, but it is clear to everyone now that bulls have won this battle. At least for the moment.

Depending on how today’s candle will close we might see another one, perhaps a bit smaller to form tomorrow.

Bitcoin price chart RSI indicator price overbought marketThe only thing that bothers me is the RSI which shows that we are reaching the overbought market condition very soon. When this happens you can expect a short price decline all the way down to $360 area, but it’s unlikely to hit that low.

Why? Because not only did the Thailand mining rig burn down, the FBI closed a ton of hidden services recently which means that a great portion of Bitcoin users just lost their Bitcoins. This should in theory make the crypto currency even more expensive so the bullish momentum might just be gaining its strength to a much higher level that what we’ve seen this far in which case our next stop will be around $440-$450 and upwards!

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The long waited confirmation for bullish Bitcoin

Bitcoin price bullish confirmation means to buy more bitcoinsIt’s happening!

First of all check out how well the support level (black horizontal line on the chart) has been holding. The price bounced right back up after hitting it the second time with a significantly lower selling strength. This means that the buyers are slowly gaining strength and it’s well known that all the prices anywhere tend to go up much slower than when they fell. That’s why the bulls are always more patient traders and bears try to bite it quickly.

 

Bullish Bitcoin Price Indicator Confirmation Formation With MACD IndicatorLet’s check out MACD

When we add the MACD (moving average convergence/divergence) indicator to our charts we can see further confirmation that’s the price is likely going to move higher from this point. The previous downward opening was only brief, and we have broken through the barrier, so to speak, and a zero crossover has taken place.

 

And now the fundamentals

 

Maybe you have already heard about the recent fire that took down a major Bitcoin mining operation. tldr; version: huge fire broke out, took down a massive Bitcoin mining operation in Thailand, millions of dollars in hardware got destroyed with no insurance whatsoever. You can read more about it on this page.

 

What does it mean for us? It’s another indicator that the Bitcoin prices may skyrocket due to the fact that the mining operation was significant enough to create a disturbance in the Block Chain. Basically Bitcoins just got much more scarce because new ones are going to be mined at a slower rate at least for a little while. You have to wonder whether or not the fire was an accident or a planned event… they have officially denied that their electrical wiring caused that fire.

 

So long story short: Buy Bitcoins.

 

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Watch our planet Earth from space in real time

This live stream of our planet was activated on board of the International Space Station in April 2014 as an experiment to see how well cameras and similar equipment handle the harsh space environment. Just look how peaceful everything seems from up there.

If you don’t see anything it just means that the International Space Station is currently on the dark side of the planet. (the area with no sunlight).

 

 

To read more about the experiment visit the High Definition Earth Viewing page (link missing, sorry).

 

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Bitcoin… oh Bitcoin, what are you up to now?

Bitcoin price trend

 

When you look at the overall chart you can clearly see that the price of Bitcoin has gradually declined since June 2013. However, the lowest point of around $280 was reached in October and it hasn’t been touched any more. It seems to me that there is a great potential for trend reversal especially because the last three days have closed higher than the previous.

 

Last three days bitcoin price risingWe have to wait a little longer to confirm this, but things are looking rather good in my opinion. Remember 10 days ago where I didn’t recommend opening a position at all, but if you really had to, I suggested to go long? (Read more about it here: http://ynef.net/bitcoin-price-acting-as-expected-is-it-time-to-open-a-long-position/). It’s never a good idea to trade against the trend, but going long should make sense right now.

 

Right now the $360 area seems like a solid resistance level. If we break this level there is great potential for further upward movement. In long term it’s already a good idea to buy a few Bitcoins and just sit on them for a while. They’re bound to go higher eventually.

 

 

Bitcoin price MACD indicatorWhen you look at the MACD indicator you can see that when the lowest point was hit in the first half of October the two lines crossed higher than previous in the second half of the same month. There’s a big chance for the crossing to take place again any time now which should drive the price even higher. Also notice how MACD keeps making higher lows!

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Bitcoin price acting as expected. Is it time to open a long position?

More than a week ago I made a bold prediction about the Bitcoin price and suggested that it would probably touch the $400 mark, maybe even $420 before going down again.

Guess I was right! A few days later the price moved up to $420 and gradually started falling until yesterday, the 25th of October, we finally met our first support level around the $350 area.

So… now what?

Picture of a virtual coin- bitcoinThere is definitely room for the price to move further below all the way up to $280 which seems to be a very strong support level. Then again our current position might very well be just a higher step on the stairway to heaven 😉

 

Right now I wouldn’t recommend opening a position at all, but if you must, then a long position should be fairly safe at this point. For a quick profit you should go long with a target at the $380 area. Actually I wouldn’t be surprised if we break the $420 mark in late November.

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Simple php guestbook script – Free download

I didn’t have anything better to do today so I decided to learn a little bit how to communicate with MYSQL databases using PHP. With this wonderful tutorial to help me I was able to construct a very basic guestbook script in about 4 hours. I know it shouldn’t take that long, but please keep in mind that this is my first ever attempt to create something like this with MYSQL and PHP.

Here’s a screenshot of the actual guestbook in action:

Ynef's random script screenshotAs you can see it’s very basic, nothing fancy.

You might notice that the title of my guestbook is ynef.net/b. Well, at first I wanted to create something similar to 4chan, but right now there is no option to post images- only text replies. I might add the option to browse and post images in the future when I learn more PHP.

What wasn’t mentioned in the above tutorial:

First of all if you follow the tutorial I mentioned above your script will work, but it will post an empty message every time someone visits or refreshes the page. To counter this I added if ($post != ”) right before the part where new posts are inserted into the MYSQL database.

This is a simple if statement that makes sure to only continue when the variable $post is not empty. Oh and don’t forget to put the code that inserts stuff into your database inside these brackets { }.

 

Another thing I added was the date of the post: $today = date(“F j, Y, g:i a”); Now you just have to echo the date variable $today along with your post.

 

I also tried making the guestbook a little bit more secure. By default if you follow the tutorial I mentioned your guestbook will be vulnerable to Cross Site Scripting attacks. In other words a bad person can submit malicious code along with his post and the next time someone visits the page that code will run. I looked into this briefly and I believe I was able to secure the guestbook by making sure that tags like <html> and <script> etc. are getting excluded when echoing the posts. It was really easy to implement with strip_tags();

 

Downloading and installing the free guestbook script

Download file: random.zip

 

Installing notes:

 

1. Open install.php in notepad and change the database variables to your own MYSQL database values

2. Upload install.php into your web directory and run it in your browser

3. Delete the install.php from your web directory

4. Open index.php in notepad and change the database variables to your own MYSQL database values

You can also change the title within the <title> tags and the guestbook name within the <h1> tags.

Yeah, I guess I could have just put the variables in one simple config file and included it in both install.php and index.php, but I was just too lazy.

5. Now upload both index.php and style.css to your web folder

 

If you followed the above steps then your guestbook should be working. If not please let me know!

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Behold! The Bitcoin bulls have returned and prices are now on the rise

 The bulls have returned

Just three days after I published my bold Bitcoin price prediction the price has behaved exactly as predicted.

After gently touching the $280 area the price held steady on $350+ for a few days and later climbed to $400. In my previous article I mentioned how media can influence buyers and sellers:

I wouldn’t be surprised when in about a month Bitcoin will receive more media coverage and everyone would be saying that it’s the perfect time to buy more coins due to the relatively cheap price compared to what it was 6 months ago.

I guess my timing was way off! I predicted this to happen in about a month, when in fact the important news coverage happened just 3 days later. Read the article that says to buy more Bitcoins here. Let me quote:

Now is the time to take two hands and buy buy buy. I expect a sharp rally to $330-$350. The price will consolidate around those levels and build a base for a move higher into the year end.

Almost exactly the same as I predicted in my previous article. It seems that the psychological support level of $300-ish held nicely and with a little help from the big boys (media) Bitcoin prices are on the rise once again.

Bitcoin price showing a downward openingMy own technical analysis

My personal setup however is still showing clear signs of a downward trend. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) indicator has opened downward, is expanding and making lower lows.

 

 

 

 

 

RSI Relative Strength Index is not showing oversold conditionThe RSI (Relative Strength Index) is not showing any signs of Bitcoin being oversold which would mean more buyers on the market although I’m sure it will get there eventually.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Basically the fundamentals (news) are saying it’s time to buy Bitcoin because the price will rise in the coming months, but my charts are showing no signs of the power of selling to disappear any time soon. Why is that? Could it be that my technical analysis is simply wrong? It’s possible. It could also mean that the Bitcoin hype and the people who believe in the prices rallying thanks to media, are collectively more powerful than technical traders.

Whatever the case might be you still have to consider the fact that new Bitcoins are still being mined every day and the miners are selling their coins for profit. The constant flow of new Bitcoins is slowly diluting the market and making Bitcoin cheaper either until the amount of Bitcoins reaches it’s maximum value or until the process of mining itself becomes too expensive for it to make sense mining them.

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