Yesterday around noon the Bitcoin started another bullish run following a repeating pattern and reaching as high as 298,912 USD per Bitcoin. A value last seen 5 months ago.
It seems that the uncertain times in Greece and in the world as a whole have had an impact on the price of Bitcoin as investors are starting to take the cryptocurrency more seriously.
More breathing room
The rally from yesterday has finally broaden the overall breathing space in BTC/USD which means that from now on we should see bigger, more serious price movement in both directions. And although the overall trend is clearly upwards, we must take into account the correction that occurs after almost every price increase- these will get bigger too!
For example when you look at the screenshot above, we have a pivot point at 282.038 and the first resistance is as far as 300.877. For months we haven’t had the chance to see such a broad breathing space.
300 is a strong resistance
The last time we broke the $300 USD level was in January 26– a long time ago! That, along with the fact that 300 is a bad ass number in itself, could mean that in the next few days we are going to see some serious struggle in breaking this psychological resistance level.
Bitcoin is gaining momentum
Even if we encounter hard resistance in the coming days, the Bitcoin is gaining enough momentum to eventually be able to defeat it. 317,750 and 336,589 are next!
I have been keeping an eye on the price of Bitcoin for months now and it seems that the latest forming pattern is a sudden price increase, followed by a 40-45% decline, followed by another even higher increase. It’s been happening over and over again for the past two months. I wonder if the Greeks had anything to do with the latest price increase that reached a solid $272 USD per Bitcoin?
Once again we find ourselves in the midst of another correction. At the moment it seems like the $260.123 low is another great entry point for a LONG position, however we still need to wait for confirmation.
Breakout signs on the W1
If you take a look at the W1 chart of BTC/USD then you immediately see that the Bollinger Bands indicator has been broken. Given the fact that the Bollinger Bands were coming closer and closer together for a very long time, it would seem that a price increase of massive proportions is ahead of us. Still, we will need to wait for the end of this week for the candle to close above the upper Bollinger Band.
What lies ahead
The technical analysis is showing great potential for long term increase. Heck, even short term bullish rallies have become “the thing“.
The Greeks and eventually the entire world seems to be heading in a very bad direction economically speaking, which would of course mean that investors are desperately looking for other ways to stay afloat.
Given the fact that the NYSE started to officially monitor the price of Bitcoin we can safely assume that a lot of people are going to hoard Bitcoin soon enough.
The morning’s correction
At around 10:30 AM the BTC/USD pair started to sell quite rapidly from 246.440 USD per Bitcoin, correcting the previous days bullish movement. It was of course expected because the market had reached the overbought condition almost at the same time.
The support level of 238.416 USD per Bitcoin seems to be holding nicely right now, but there is still some room to move a little lower. The trading volume has started to decline already indicating that a lot of the traders are already closing their SHORT positions, perhaps getting ready to go LONG once again.
Targets to aim for
If the support level of 238.416 holds then we can expect the price to move upwards to at least around the 241 USD per Bitcoin area. I wouldn’t bet on the 247.440 resistance just yet because the Bollinger Bands indicator is showing a slight downward direction at this time.
Thanks for reading and please use the Pivot Point Calculator I made to get your support and resistance levels easily!
Ynef’s free pivot point calculator
I was bored today so I made a pivot point calculator for you to help with your technical analysis. It takes HIGH, LOW and CLOSE prices and calculates three resistance and support levels along with the pivot point itself.
Permanent URL for your bookmarks: pp.ynef.net
What are pivot points?
In financial markets, a pivot point is a price level that is used by traders as a predictive indicator of market movement. A pivot point is calculated as an average of significant prices (high, low, close) from the performance of a market in the prior trading period.
Our patience has paid off
It’s the middle part of March 2015 right now, the sun is shining and signs of a long winter are slowly fading away. The beginning of spring seems to have helped Bitcoin reach equilibrium against the US dollar. We have closed quite a few long positions since our last Bitcoin related article and now it’s time to sit back and observe the market a little closer because we are bound to have some drawback right about now.
Bitcoin price in March 2015
We are reaching closer and closer to the overbought market condition which most likely means that the price is bound to correct itself pretty soon. There are good solid support levels around 286.675 and 283.701 and it’s likely that the price is going to try those levels throughout the other half of March, 2015.
Unless something extraordinary happens in the crypto currency world I estimate another bullish run not before April. So bulls, I’m afraid you’re going to have to hold back for a while, but know this: your time will always come!
Bitcoin price in the year 2014
Bitcoin is the most popular cryptocurrency right now and it will remain the most popular and most traded cryptocurrency for at least a few more years or until someone comes up with a better alternative.
The price of Bitcoin has been quite volatile throughout the year 2014. It has touched the $1000 mark and dropped back to $300. In December 2013 we witnessed Bitcoin find resistance in the $1200 USD mark – the highest price for Bitcoin yet. This was mainly due to extreme media coverage that Bitcoin received in the second half of 2013. Literally every news agency in the world published controversial articles about Bitcoin back then and investors went crazy about it. I can’t be a hundred percent sure, but I believe that this was done intentionally to manipulate the price. In theory it shouldn’t be that difficult in the Internet era.
When I look at the Bitcoin price I always consider the possibility that there are still price manipulators out there who control the market thus making it incredibly risky to invest in Bitcoin long term. Basically any one person or organization that holds more than half of the Bitcoins at any given time can easily manipulate the price by for example dumping most of their coins all over the market in a short period of time. Who owns the biggest Bitcoin wallet you may ask? The FBI does ;)
When you look at the charts you’ll notice that since June 2014 there has been massive selling of Bitcoin about twice a month resulting in an overall price drop, followed by a weak bullish run and an even greater selling frenzy shortly after that. This has been going on for the last couple of months now and has brought the price down to just $300 USD per coin. For now we have found support around this area, but how long will it hold? 300 is a nice round number and a great psychological support level, but we have already tested $280 once!
I predict that a small bullish run to $400, maybe $450 is likely to happen in the coming weeks followed by another drop to $300. Looking at the overall trend it’s obvious the price should penetrate this support level, but I wouldn’t be surprised when in about a month Bitcoin will receive more media coverage and everyone would be saying that it’s the perfect time to buy more coins due to the relatively cheap price compared to what it was 6 months ago. This of course could skyrocket the price back to at least $600 area where it was in the beginning of summer 2014. That being said, my current setup is literally screaming BUY now.
I’ve always known media was a powerful weapon, but I never realized how powerful it really was. To prove my theory of how media influences people to buy or sell their coins I decided to check my local news portal for clues. First I looked at the 6 month price graph for Bitcoin and then I searched for news articles about Bitcoin that were published in the past 6 months. And guess what? I found that every time media says something big about Bitcoin the prices will fluctuate a lot! Whenever there’s news that some big corporation started accepting Bitcoin you should be prepared for a rally. Remember when FBI put a lot of coins on auction? The prices came down like autumn rain. Of course this was expected because there were actual coins being dumped on the market, but when a corporation like Dell starts accepting Bitcoin out of the blue the price rally can only be temporary because there are no actual coins involved.
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