Bollinger bands breakout
Todays Bollinger Bands breakout has been “boiling” for a few days now, but prior today the market was moving pretty much sideways indicating that the bulls were simply looking for the right moment to arise.
I had my own long position opened on the 19th of April already, so I guess I was there a little bit early. Nevertheless, the breakout happened and as a result the market is starting to look a lot more bullish once again.
While there is still some room for the pair to gain, I strongly recommend closing your long positions at the moment unless you are aiming for something bigger in the long run. (I am trading mainly on the 1H and 4H charts) It’s very likely the market will pull back around $228 area fairly soon.
$240 is not far
It will not take long for the Bitcoin to test a resistance level at $240,495. At the current rate this should be easily achievable later this week.
First licensed Bitcoin exchange opening
The first licensed U.S based Bitcoin exchange will be opening later today which is great news for all the bulls out there because this move is likely going to bring back a lot of lost trust for the crypto currency, Bitcoin.
While I am very surprised to see a move like that from the U.S I am happy it has finally been done. There are serious money involved and since it’s now licensed and approved in many states, the chances of someone running away with your coins has decreased a lot- therefore more people are going to trust the exchanger with their coins and because they take no fees for the first two months we can expect a buying marathon to take place very soon.
All the way up
Just yesterday on the 26th the price per Bitcoin jumped all the way to $303,303 USD which is the highest point yet in our newly forming upward trend. From there the price correction occurred all the way down to $241,094, but we’ve confirmed with the two new bullish candles that this is likely going to be the end of it. We can be fairly confident that the resistance level of $271,372 is going to be breached later today or some time tomorrow.
The beautiful upward trend that is forming on my charts along with the fact that today Coinbase is going to make history it’s quite safe to go long in BTC/USD. Just promise me you will make up your own mind before you blindly take my advice, that’s all I need to know.
Slow and steady gains
The price of Bitcoin has been slowly recovering from the biggest drop we’ve seen since the year 2013. For the last ten days the price has steadily been moving upwards after a bullish breakout closer and closer to the resistance level at around 260.7 USD. I am fairly confident that at least up until this point there shouldn’t be anything that will stop the trend. We will most likely see some fallback around that level, but if all goes well the 260 USD mark will be broken at the end of January or early February.
Pivot point calculator
Since I have upgraded to a much more professional software, the MetaTrader 4, I now have a lot better indicators and overall user interface. I was looking around for a MT4 pivot point calculator script and I found some, but I can’t be sure how reliable they are or what algorithm they are using so for the time being I am still using this: Pivot Point Calculator. I will let you know once mine is ready- I am planning on making one really soon because it’s not really making sense to manually type in those pivots every morning, right?
BTC/USD Support broken
Sadly the strong support level that held for months has finally been breached. If the bearish candle closes below $320 level then we can expect more downward movement very soon. We have already tested $317 which is the lowest point BTC/USD has ever been since it started to gain bullish momentum at the end of 2013.
We are at a critical point right now with a lot at stake. Should the support level breach be confirmed tomorrow there is very little that our technicals can do to help Bitcoin. The only way I can see another bullish run in the future is through media influence or FBI, but I’ve heard rumors that these guys are doing all they can to destroy this lovely crypto currency, probably because they’re in league with central banks all over the globe who are scared to see Bitcoin as a powerful alternative to regulated currency. You can see it when you look into all the coins they’ve seized from people just to put them out for auction a few months later.
I underestimated the market
Guess I have underestimated the buyers potential and also the significance of the recent hidden service raid that FBI conducted earlier this week. Just look at that wonderful green bullish candle :) There’s clearly a connection between the raid and the price movement here because last time FBI closed one of the biggest darknet marketplaces and confiscated millions of dollars in Bitcoins the price skyrocketed exactly the same way just a few days later. After they put those coins out for auction the price obviously fell and now we can see the same thing happening all over again. Will they auction these coins as well? Time will tell.
The RSI indicator is showing that the price has moved over the overbought line. This along with the fact that we’ve had a crazy rally means that a price correction is imminent. How far will it fall? There is a very strong support level around the $380 mark, but I highly doubt it’s going to fall that low. A more reasonable target would be the $410-$420 area, where the price may linger for a few days before we have a better chance at entering a long position again. That being said, there’s no reason why you should close your position right now if you’re aiming for something bigger!
Riding the bulls
The last few days have simply been amazing. On the 9th of November I published a short article about the bullish movement of Bitcoin and just three days later the price has reached $400 USD.
So what now? If you look at what happened on the 11th and 10th of November then you can see a great struggle between the bulls and the bears. The market was unsure how to react, but it is clear to everyone now that bulls have won this battle. At least for the moment.
Depending on how today’s candle will close we might see another one, perhaps a bit smaller to form tomorrow.
The only thing that bothers me is the RSI which shows that we are reaching the overbought market condition very soon. When this happens you can expect a short price decline all the way down to $360 area, but it’s unlikely to hit that low.
Why? Because not only did the Thailand mining rig burn down, the FBI closed a ton of hidden services recently which means that a great portion of Bitcoin users just lost their Bitcoins. This should in theory make the crypto currency even more expensive so the bullish momentum might just be gaining its strength to a much higher level that what we’ve seen this far in which case our next stop will be around $440-$450 and upwards!
Bitcoin price trend
When you look at the overall chart you can clearly see that the price of Bitcoin has gradually declined since June 2013. However, the lowest point of around $280 was reached in October and it hasn’t been touched any more. It seems to me that there is a great potential for trend reversal especially because the last three days have closed higher than the previous.
We have to wait a little longer to confirm this, but things are looking rather good in my opinion. Remember 10 days ago where I didn’t recommend opening a position at all, but if you really had to, I suggested to go long? (Read more about it here: http://ynef.net/bitcoin-price-acting-as-expected-is-it-time-to-open-a-long-position/). It’s never a good idea to trade against the trend, but going long should make sense right now.
Right now the $360 area seems like a solid resistance level. If we break this level there is great potential for further upward movement. In long term it’s already a good idea to buy a few Bitcoins and just sit on them for a while. They’re bound to go higher eventually.
When you look at the MACD indicator you can see that when the lowest point was hit in the first half of October the two lines crossed higher than previous in the second half of the same month. There’s a big chance for the crossing to take place again any time now which should drive the price even higher. Also notice how MACD keeps making higher lows!