Tag: bitcoin in 2015

Bitcoin just tested the $400 USD area again

Ever since my last post about Bitcoin more than two weeks ago, I have been keeping a close eye on the price movement and the news as well. Judging from the chart alone, it’s highly possible that Bitcoin will soon break the $400 resistance level, because it has tested it twice already in the last two days and today’s hourly candle closed a lot closer to this level than the previous. The technical analysis is definitely showing an increasing pressure from the bulls, but that’s not all! The news have been very favorable as well.

bitcoin testing 400 usd area twice in two days

Visa is Testing Remittances on the Bitcoin Blockchain

Visa Europe became the latest enterprise financial institution to announce a blockchain proof-of-concept this month, when it revealed it was working to leverage the emerging technology for remittances.

Report: Barbados Central Bank should hold Bitcoin

Two Barbadian economists have concluded that the country’s central bank may want to consider holding a small amount of bitcoin as part of its portfolio of foreign reserves.

Former assistant of President Obama joins Bitcoin Miner Bitfury

I believe in the blockchain and the transformation power of this technology. And you should too. In fact, I believe in the blockchain so much that I just left my fantastic job working for Edelman … to take on the role of global chief of communications at BitFury.” Source: http://www.coindesk.com/former-white-house-staffer-joins-bitcoin-miner-bitfury/

Bitcoin bulls just getting started

The above three news were just a few examples how seriously people are starting to take Bitcoin and its underlying technology, the Blockchain. Deutsche Bank, for instance, has claimed that the Blockchain technology will become mainstream within just the next decade.

I’m a Bitcoin permabull myself and I strongly believe that we can break the $400 barrier this year. Perhaps there’s not enough power to test $500 within just two weeks, but we should be getting there in the first part of 2016 as well. See you on the moon!

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Bitcoin holding steady over the highest point ever in the year 2015

In my previous post about Bitcoin I said that breaking $300 was important, but that was only important because it’s a nice round number and human beings like these sort of things. The actual level that needed to be broken was $304,3 which was the highest point Bitcoin had ever been this year and sure enough it managed to not only break this level, but stay above it steadily for more than 24 hours. As of right now, Bitcoin has not been this expensive in the entire year of 2015 so things are looking rather good!

BTC USD 1D Chart Graph

Unlikely a pump and dump

Given the fact that this rally is happening slowly and steadily makes me very confident to say that we’re not dealing with a plain old pump and dump right now. Of course, I could be wrong, but a pump and dump usually happens a lot faster unless the whales are trying a more careful approach this time. Also we shouldn’t underestimate the buying power of China because apparently they’re the ones mostly responsible for this.

Price manipulation or not, I have closed all of my LONG positions for now because nothing can climb so high without falling down at least a little bit. The candles are indeed getting wider, but that’s all the more reason to believe that we are going to max out very soon.

We can see further indication of an imminent correction by looking at RSI which is currently showing a strong overbought market at 87.8%.

Highest value in 2015

Throughout the year we have witnessed Bitcoin climb from $230-$250 lows up to $300 and coming back down again. This happened on two previous occasions until finally in October 2015 we managed to break the old barriers and stay afloat above the highest point from July. As of right now Bitcoin’s value is the highest it has ever been this whole year.

Big expectations

A lot of investors from Bitcointalk.org are being overly optimistic about the current price movement and are throwing around numbers as big as $500, $600 and even higher. I unfortunately don’t share that enthusiasm because I can’t simply ignore all the technical analysis data which is showing the current price increase as nothing more but a mere correction in an overall down trend when looked at from the 1W and 1M time scales.

It is my estimate that if indeed we continue the bullish run, it won’t reach higher than $450-$475 before coming back down again hard.

Only one thing can change my estimate and that is when Bitcoin can successfully close this week’s candle outside the 1W Bollinger Bands which have been contracting since April. We could be dealing with a major breakout should this happen and given that we only need to survive one more day, it’s a very likely scenario.

Halving in less than a year

Bitcoin block halving is estimated to take place in less than a year from now and when it happens the rewards from solving a block are reduced from 25 to 12.5 per block. This is significant because it could very well be the end for Bitcoin as we know it. Why?

Because small time miners have been selling their Bitcoin mining rigs and/or switching to other, more easily mined cryptocurrencies for a couple of years now. What do you think will happen if suddenly the reward for solving a block gets halved when it’s already barely profitable to mine for most miners?

The most logical thing to happen is that the few miners that we have left are going to dump all their hardware, move to a more profitable crypto currency or quit mining altogether.

When exactly is the halving going take place? Nobody can say the exact moment, but Bitcoin Block Half has a fairly good estimate.

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