In my previous post about Bitcoin I said that breaking $300 was important, but that was only important because it’s a nice round number and human beings like these sort of things. The actual level that needed to be broken was $304,3 which was the highest point Bitcoin had ever been this year and sure enough it managed to not only break this level, but stay above it steadily for more than 24 hours. As of right now, Bitcoin has not been this expensive in the entire year of 2015 so things are looking rather good!
Unlikely a pump and dump
Given the fact that this rally is happening slowly and steadily makes me very confident to say that we’re not dealing with a plain old pump and dump right now. Of course, I could be wrong, but a pump and dump usually happens a lot faster unless the whales are trying a more careful approach this time. Also we shouldn’t underestimate the buying power of China because apparently they’re the ones mostly responsible for this.
Price manipulation or not, I have closed all of my LONG positions for now because nothing can climb so high without falling down at least a little bit. The candles are indeed getting wider, but that’s all the more reason to believe that we are going to max out very soon.
We can see further indication of an imminent correction by looking at RSI which is currently showing a strong overbought market at 87.8%.
Highest value in 2015
Throughout the year we have witnessed Bitcoin climb from $230-$250 lows up to $300 and coming back down again. This happened on two previous occasions until finally in October 2015 we managed to break the old barriers and stay afloat above the highest point from July. As of right now Bitcoin’s value is the highest it has ever been this whole year.
A lot of investors from Bitcointalk.org are being overly optimistic about the current price movement and are throwing around numbers as big as $500, $600 and even higher. I unfortunately don’t share that enthusiasm because I can’t simply ignore all the technical analysis data which is showing the current price increase as nothing more but a mere correction in an overall down trend when looked at from the 1W and 1M time scales.
It is my estimate that if indeed we continue the bullish run, it won’t reach higher than $450-$475 before coming back down again hard.
Only one thing can change my estimate and that is when Bitcoin can successfully close this week’s candle outside the 1W Bollinger Bands which have been contracting since April. We could be dealing with a major breakout should this happen and given that we only need to survive one more day, it’s a very likely scenario.
Halving in less than a year
Bitcoin block halving is estimated to take place in less than a year from now and when it happens the rewards from solving a block are reduced from 25 to 12.5 per block. This is significant because it could very well be the end for Bitcoin as we know it. Why?
Because small time miners have been selling their Bitcoin mining rigs and/or switching to other, more easily mined cryptocurrencies for a couple of years now. What do you think will happen if suddenly the reward for solving a block gets halved when it’s already barely profitable to mine for most miners?
The most logical thing to happen is that the few miners that we have left are going to dump all their hardware, move to a more profitable crypto currency or quit mining altogether.
When exactly is the halving going take place? Nobody can say the exact moment, but Bitcoin Block Half has a fairly good estimate.