First licensed Bitcoin exchange opening
The first licensed U.S based Bitcoin exchange will be opening later today which is great news for all the bulls out there because this move is likely going to bring back a lot of lost trust for the crypto currency, Bitcoin.
While I am very surprised to see a move like that from the U.S I am happy it has finally been done. There are serious money involved and since it’s now licensed and approved in many states, the chances of someone running away with your coins has decreased a lot- therefore more people are going to trust the exchanger with their coins and because they take no fees for the first two months we can expect a buying marathon to take place very soon.
All the way up
Just yesterday on the 26th the price per Bitcoin jumped all the way to $303,303 USD which is the highest point yet in our newly forming upward trend. From there the price correction occurred all the way down to $241,094, but we’ve confirmed with the two new bullish candles that this is likely going to be the end of it. We can be fairly confident that the resistance level of $271,372 is going to be breached later today or some time tomorrow.
The beautiful upward trend that is forming on my charts along with the fact that today Coinbase is going to make history it’s quite safe to go long in BTC/USD. Just promise me you will make up your own mind before you blindly take my advice, that’s all I need to know.
Riding the bulls
The last few days have simply been amazing. On the 9th of November I published a short article about the bullish movement of Bitcoin and just three days later the price has reached $400 USD.
So what now? If you look at what happened on the 11th and 10th of November then you can see a great struggle between the bulls and the bears. The market was unsure how to react, but it is clear to everyone now that bulls have won this battle. At least for the moment.
Depending on how today’s candle will close we might see another one, perhaps a bit smaller to form tomorrow.
The only thing that bothers me is the RSI which shows that we are reaching the overbought market condition very soon. When this happens you can expect a short price decline all the way down to $360 area, but it’s unlikely to hit that low.
Why? Because not only did the Thailand mining rig burn down, the FBI closed a ton of hidden services recently which means that a great portion of Bitcoin users just lost their Bitcoins. This should in theory make the crypto currency even more expensive so the bullish momentum might just be gaining its strength to a much higher level that what we’ve seen this far in which case our next stop will be around $440-$450 and upwards!
More than a week ago I made a bold prediction about the Bitcoin price and suggested that it would probably touch the $400 mark, maybe even $420 before going down again.
Guess I was right! A few days later the price moved up to $420 and gradually started falling until yesterday, the 25th of October, we finally met our first support level around the $350 area.
So… now what?
There is definitely room for the price to move further below all the way up to $280 which seems to be a very strong support level. Then again our current position might very well be just a higher step on the stairway to heaven ;)
Right now I wouldn’t recommend opening a position at all, but if you must, then a long position should be fairly safe at this point. For a quick profit you should go long with a target at the $380 area. Actually I wouldn’t be surprised if we break the $420 mark in late November.
Bitcoin price in the year 2014
Bitcoin is the most popular cryptocurrency right now and it will remain the most popular and most traded cryptocurrency for at least a few more years or until someone comes up with a better alternative.
The price of Bitcoin has been quite volatile throughout the year 2014. It has touched the $1000 mark and dropped back to $300. In December 2013 we witnessed Bitcoin find resistance in the $1200 USD mark – the highest price for Bitcoin yet. This was mainly due to extreme media coverage that Bitcoin received in the second half of 2013. Literally every news agency in the world published controversial articles about Bitcoin back then and investors went crazy about it. I can’t be a hundred percent sure, but I believe that this was done intentionally to manipulate the price. In theory it shouldn’t be that difficult in the Internet era.
When I look at the Bitcoin price I always consider the possibility that there are still price manipulators out there who control the market thus making it incredibly risky to invest in Bitcoin long term. Basically any one person or organization that holds more than half of the Bitcoins at any given time can easily manipulate the price by for example dumping most of their coins all over the market in a short period of time. Who owns the biggest Bitcoin wallet you may ask? The FBI does ;)
When you look at the charts you’ll notice that since June 2014 there has been massive selling of Bitcoin about twice a month resulting in an overall price drop, followed by a weak bullish run and an even greater selling frenzy shortly after that. This has been going on for the last couple of months now and has brought the price down to just $300 USD per coin. For now we have found support around this area, but how long will it hold? 300 is a nice round number and a great psychological support level, but we have already tested $280 once!
I predict that a small bullish run to $400, maybe $450 is likely to happen in the coming weeks followed by another drop to $300. Looking at the overall trend it’s obvious the price should penetrate this support level, but I wouldn’t be surprised when in about a month Bitcoin will receive more media coverage and everyone would be saying that it’s the perfect time to buy more coins due to the relatively cheap price compared to what it was 6 months ago. This of course could skyrocket the price back to at least $600 area where it was in the beginning of summer 2014. That being said, my current setup is literally screaming BUY now.
I’ve always known media was a powerful weapon, but I never realized how powerful it really was. To prove my theory of how media influences people to buy or sell their coins I decided to check my local news portal for clues. First I looked at the 6 month price graph for Bitcoin and then I searched for news articles about Bitcoin that were published in the past 6 months. And guess what? I found that every time media says something big about Bitcoin the prices will fluctuate a lot! Whenever there’s news that some big corporation started accepting Bitcoin you should be prepared for a rally. Remember when FBI put a lot of coins on auction? The prices came down like autumn rain. Of course this was expected because there were actual coins being dumped on the market, but when a corporation like Dell starts accepting Bitcoin out of the blue the price rally can only be temporary because there are no actual coins involved.
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