As you can see I have finally updated to a better, more sophisticated software. The price chart looks a lot better now with a lot of custom features and I already looked into MQL4 programming language which at first glance seemed epic easy to master so keep an eye out because in the future I could create a trading robot for Bitcoin ;)
Other half of January
It’s not looking good for the bulls- at all. The breakout since the early days of year 2015 has been harsh for the bulls. Bitcoin has now fallen from $317,3 all the way to $226 and it’s showing no signs of stopping any time soon. Remember, we are dealing with the lowest point of BTC since March 2013. The fact that we couldn’t break the barrier of Jan the 3rd which was $289, on the 7th of Jan (which is the highest point for price correction) means that we have a confirmed downward trend. Just look at that last black candle of death…
So what should we do?
I’m a bull myself and I never make good trades from selling, but if you want to give it a try then wait for another price correction up to some $264 area and then go short. It makes more sense to sell at this time. I personally haven’t YET given up all hope and I will be waiting for an opportunity to go long instead. It might not happen any time soon, but we have been lingering in the oversold area for too long already.
Bitcoin in the year 2014
We started out strong this year! After the traditional years end selling marathon where the BTC fell from its highest point yet, the $1200 area, we quickly recovered in January 2014 from $600 all the way up to $1000 again. Investors were confident that Bitcoin is the new goldmine.
The media coverage
It’s no surprise that the media was creating a fuss about Bitcoin considering that BTC is a commodity that suddenly exploded from $100 to $1200 in just a few weeks. Everybody was talking about Bitcoin in 2014. People were creating new businesses that solely relied on Bitcoin as a currency and even the government, the banks and the IRS were taking Bitcoin seriously. All this controversial publicity reflects nicely on the charts as well- it’s almost as if BTC became alive! Heck, even PayPal added limited support for Bitcoin.
What goes up, must come down
Surely something that suddenly rises to such heights must come down eventually and chill for a while to balance things out. This is exactly what happened throughout the year 2014, the BTC/USD gradually came down from the high losing the hard on it had from all the media fuss.
What to expect from 2015
If you look at the yearly chart (above) you can see that we are currently at the lowest point yet ever since this whole madness started back in 2013. Because we are getting closer and closer to years end a lot of investors are raking in profits for a fresh start next year so the mass selling of BTC right now seems pretty normal to me. I am kind of disappointed to see that we broke through a nice solid support level in the $320 area though. Looking at this makes me believe that the maximum buying potential for BTC in 2015 shouldn’t get us higher than $600, maybe $750. It will need some serious super powers to get past that point.
Right now we are probably going lower from here as the years end is creeping closer and closer so don’t get too crazy when you wake up one morning and find that BTC is worth only $250. The $320 area support level was a serious breaking point and there’s nothing left to stop the selling any more other than the deliciously low price itself which will surely get investors back to buying, especially in the first month of 2015.
Tips for 2015
- Sell all your Bitcoins until the new years eve.
- Wait for a week or so.
- Start buying up coins and enjoy the rally.
- Look out for any media coverage (good and bad).
- Keep an eye on this blog ;)
BTC/USD Support broken
Sadly the strong support level that held for months has finally been breached. If the bearish candle closes below $320 level then we can expect more downward movement very soon. We have already tested $317 which is the lowest point BTC/USD has ever been since it started to gain bullish momentum at the end of 2013.
We are at a critical point right now with a lot at stake. Should the support level breach be confirmed tomorrow there is very little that our technicals can do to help Bitcoin. The only way I can see another bullish run in the future is through media influence or FBI, but I’ve heard rumors that these guys are doing all they can to destroy this lovely crypto currency, probably because they’re in league with central banks all over the globe who are scared to see Bitcoin as a powerful alternative to regulated currency. You can see it when you look into all the coins they’ve seized from people just to put them out for auction a few months later.
Is it over already?
The last week’s rally was simply awesome. Congrats to anyone who got a chance to ride the wave along with us. The price started to gain momentum from $320 days before the actual jump took place, but the signs of it happening were all over the place. In just a few days we went from $320 to almost $460 so a correction was bound to happen. In my previous Bitcoin price prediction article I estimated the price to linger in the $410 – $420 area for a few days and then proceed to gain strength once more. Everything was fine for a few days, but looking at the charts today I can say that the correction isn’t really a correction any more, it’s a bearish ride.
FBI – The real market mover
It’s not a coincidence that the price started to fall just when the feds announced that they will be auctioning 50,000 Bitcoins they took from Dread Pirate Roberts, the founder of the biggest black market in the internet history. When you look at the chart you will see that on Monday the market was unsure where to go. I am confident that if it the feds wouldn’t have announced the auction the price would have behaved exactly the way I predicted it previously.
When you look at the way MACD is crossing you’ll see that the previous cross took place at a much lower point. This gives us a little bit of hope that the overall Bitcoin price trend is still bullish. The $320 area is still our strongest support at this point because we have tested it two times already in the past.
What about RSI?
Looking at the RSI it’s pretty clear we are going to go lower from here. Further price movement is now depending on two factors: 1) how many Bitcoins the feds are able to auction and 2) will we reach the oversold market condition before our $320 support or not.