The BTC/USD has been in a consistent decline now for the last four days when the selling started back on 29th of July. As of right now things aren’t looking too good! We’re seeing signs of bullish reversal on the D1 time scale, which shouldn’t come as a surprise because we’re still in a very strong overall bear market when looking at the Monthly chart. However the Bollinger Bands breakout on 1W is giving hope for the mid-term.
Suspicious crash to $194.922
On the 18th of July there was a suspicious price drop all the way down to $194.922. The fact that this only happened on the BTC-E charts and nowhere else indicates some sort of a price manipulation might have occurred on that day. The price quickly recovered from the sell off, but it left a serious dent on the market for the near future. BTC-E might be directly responsible for this according to some posts on Bitcointalk.
As seen on the daily chart the BTC just made a perfect lower high which indicates a weakening buying power. I have no doubt its due to the shady as hell price drop just a couple of days prior. The trading volume itself is getting smaller, but the blackness of the candles is getting wider. That’s always a bad sign.
RSI is oversold
On a more positive note, the RSI has been hanging around the oversold area for some time now and if you take a look at the weekly chart, you’ll see that the trend line has crossed and opened upwards with the Bollinger Bands average. This, along with the breakout on contracting Bollinger Bands is giving hope for some bullish moves for the mid-term. It’s definitely not going to happen today, tomorrow or maybe even next week, but the signs of this being a mere correction and not reversal are still there for now.
265.002 is a key point
Right now the $265.002 USD per Bitcoin is a key support level for short term traders. If it holds, we can once again start looking for LONG positions to enter, but at this moment it’s best to either stay away or look for SHORT positions instead.
Since the 16th of July the price of Bitcoin has stayed under the daily pivot point indicating a bearish market in favor of SHORT orders. The initial “panic selling” seems to have subsided as we are now moving sideways around $271 USD per Bitcoin.
I’ve never been good with going SHORT, but I guess the massive selling spree got to me too as I have just closed a SHORT position in profit (that’s very rare for me). I am currently uncertain if it can go lower, but looking at the daily pivot points I can see almost two times more room in the downward direction, rather than upward direction. Does “more room” always mean it will go that way though?
Could go as low as $261
Around $261 I can see a support level that should by all intents and purposes hold for now. It’s likely we are going to test this area and it’s possible that we’re going to do this more than once. Breaking the 261-260 area would be a pretty grim outlook and I’d rather not speculate on this so early on, because the overall trend on the 1W chart is showing upward momentum. A lot can happen in short time scales though.
Almost two weeks ago I predicted that the BTC/USD pair would continue to grow and I set my target level around the 253 area. (I know, I said 254.206, but it’s always a good idea to set your TP just a little bit lower). Today, on the 29’th of June, 2015 the target was reached and yet another successful trade has now been closed. The only thing that will keep bugging me is the fact that I couldn’t wait a few days into the evident correction and jumped on the train too early.
Clear bullish signals from Bitcoin
There’s no doubt that the cryptocurrency will climb even higher in the weeks to come. If we take a look at the weekly chart we can see that something big is about to happen.
There’s just no way this can continue for very long. Sooner or later a breakout of massive scale is going to happen. We are seeing the first signs already by looking at smaller time frames, mainly the 1H and 4H.
The correction that started some time on the 18th of June has now officially ended as we moved past the 250.810 range (the closing price for the 17th of June candle).
I was a little off
After I made my last Bitcoin price prediction on May 21’st, the market decided to take a plunge downwards instead and I have to admit- I was a little disappointed when I realized I might have been wrong about the whole thing with the NYSE.
Gradually gaining strength again
I’m glad I didn’t close my long position then and there, because it seems the plunge wasn’t really a “plunge” at all. The market was simply getting ready for a very big jump instead!
It started out slowly on the 8’th of June, 2015- A strong and juicy bullish candle finally formed after five days of confusion and sideways movement.
Then we had to endure three and a half more days of sideways, slightly upward movement when finally, on the 16’th of June, a spectacular white candle filled with enthusiasm itself was launched into orbit.
It won’t stop there
Such a big move is definitely going to change the game. I mean look at it– can you really resist entering a long position after you’ve seen something like this happen right before your eyes?
There is a resistance level worthy of mentioning around 254.206. This is going to be our target for the time being just to be on the safe side, but once it’s broken, a whole new game will start- a game that we haven’t seen for four months around the 262.395 USD per Bitcoin.
Yesterday’s resistance broken
Bitcoin has succeeded in breaking through a pretty solid resistance level of 234.394 setting our next target as high as 237.320 USD per Bitcoin.
New York Stock Exchange Influence
The news from a few days ago where the NYSE announced that they will begin monitoring the price of Bitcoin, has greatly influenced the current price increase. The reason is simple enough: traders believe that if NYSE is monitoring the price of Bitcoin, it has to be worth investing in. This has already resulted in the overall increase of buyers versus sellers because new investors, who have previously stayed away from Bitcoin, are now jumping in just to get a piece of the pie.
We can’t be sure how exactly all this plays out, however, for the time being it’s very likely that we are going to see some serious bullish movement for BTC/USD. Just imagine all of the “old school” traders who used to stay away from Bitcoin now beginning to question their beliefs. It’s definitely going to be one hell of a ride we have ahead of us in this summer ;)
Bitcoin just took a huge leap towards becoming a more legitimate and trustworthy crypto currency. Yesterday, on May 19th, The New York Stock Exchange announced that they will begin monitoring the Bitcoin price against the US dollar just like any other foreign currency pair.
“Bitcoin values are quickly becoming a data point that our customers want to follow as they consider transacting, trading or investing with this emerging asset class”
What this means for us?
It’s very likely that the BTC/USD pair will soon skyrocket because that has always happened with high impact news like this one in the past. We have already witnessed a solid bullish candle close just after the news was published to the world.
The only thing to look out for at this time is the resistance level 234.394. Until this is broken we can’t really be sure where the price decides to go.
Bollinger bands breakout
Todays Bollinger Bands breakout has been “boiling” for a few days now, but prior today the market was moving pretty much sideways indicating that the bulls were simply looking for the right moment to arise.
I had my own long position opened on the 19th of April already, so I guess I was there a little bit early. Nevertheless, the breakout happened and as a result the market is starting to look a lot more bullish once again.
While there is still some room for the pair to gain, I strongly recommend closing your long positions at the moment unless you are aiming for something bigger in the long run. (I am trading mainly on the 1H and 4H charts) It’s very likely the market will pull back around $228 area fairly soon.
$240 is not far
It will not take long for the Bitcoin to test a resistance level at $240,495. At the current rate this should be easily achievable later this week.