Ever since my last post about Bitcoin more than two weeks ago, I have been keeping a close eye on the price movement and the news as well. Judging from the chart alone, it’s highly possible that Bitcoin will soon break the $400 resistance level, because it has tested it twice already in the last two days and today’s hourly candle closed a lot closer to this level than the previous. The technical analysis is definitely showing an increasing pressure from the bulls, but that’s not all! The news have been very favorable as well.
Visa is Testing Remittances on the Bitcoin Blockchain
Visa Europe became the latest enterprise financial institution to announce a blockchain proof-of-concept this month, when it revealed it was working to leverage the emerging technology for remittances.
Report: Barbados Central Bank should hold Bitcoin
Two Barbadian economists have concluded that the country’s central bank may want to consider holding a small amount of bitcoin as part of its portfolio of foreign reserves.
Former assistant of President Obama joins Bitcoin Miner Bitfury
“I believe in the blockchain and the transformation power of this technology. And you should too. In fact, I believe in the blockchain so much that I just left my fantastic job working for Edelman … to take on the role of global chief of communications at BitFury.” Source: http://www.coindesk.com/former-white-house-staffer-joins-bitcoin-miner-bitfury/
Bitcoin bulls just getting started
The above three news were just a few examples how seriously people are starting to take Bitcoin and its underlying technology, the Blockchain. Deutsche Bank, for instance, has claimed that the Blockchain technology will become mainstream within just the next decade.
I’m a Bitcoin permabull myself and I strongly believe that we can break the $400 barrier this year. Perhaps there’s not enough power to test $500 within just two weeks, but we should be getting there in the first part of 2016 as well. See you on the moon!
After almost two weeks of sideways movement we have once again started to see “strange” movement on the BTC/USD pair. A massive dump yesterday, then a couple of hours of sideways movement followed by a massive bullish candle almost exactly the same size as the dump indicates that something is indeed brewing in the Bitcoin world. The recent Bitcoin rally that peaked around $520 USD per Bitcoin on November the 4th, may have just been a prequel for what’s coming.
Japan as the next pump
The previous pump was initially started by the Chinese investors when their economy ran into trouble. Now, Japan has also announced that they have fallen back into recession. Could the Japanese investors follow China’s lead and start a new bullish rally?
I think that’s very likely as gold and other precious metals are currently falling too, so the only seemingly safe move would be to buy Bitcoins given the upcoming block halving event and the current belief among most traders that this event will double, if not triple the value of Bitcoin.
It will only take a nudge
As we have previously seen with China, it doesn’t take much to initiate a FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) where small, medium and big investors panic together as they see a huge bullish candle and start buying up the coin in order to make a quick profit. I predict these types of pump and dumps will become a lot more frequent all the way towards the block halving which, by the way, isn’t guaranteeing a Bitcoin’s increase in reality.
While it’s true that the Bitcoin, at least in theory, should continue to climb against the USD in the coming weeks and months, we are once again finding some serious resistance from the $300. The most recent rally found resistance around the $296 area to be precise and when we look at the overall movement of the crypto currency through the entire year of 2015, we will see that it’s not the first time this has happened.
Breaking $300 is key
When you look at the chart above, you will immediately notice that we are right now testing the $300 barrier for the third time this year. First being in March and second, slightly higher move in July. It seems that the number 300 acts as a solid psychological resistance level where most of the day traders pretty much chicken out and start pulling their profits, thus lowering the value of Bitcoin.
Third time’s the charm?
It’s interesting to see that in July the buying power was slightly stronger than in March and although it ended with a more serious selling, it can still give us clues what to expect from the current rally. It’s very likely we are going to break the 300 this time around, but will it hold for good? Only time will tell. We can still stay quite positive just by looking at how green our current rally has been. Sure, we can expect some drawback soon, but right now it doesn’t look like it’s going to be anything drastic. Don’t forget the awesome fundamentals that are most likely responsible for the rally in the first place!
Bitcoin started off August with a selling spree and while the price did stabilize for a week, we are now seeing even more intense selling taking place in the second half of August, 2015. As of right now all indication of a bullish market is now lost and the bears have won the battle.
Bitcoin value is decreasing
When you look at the daily charts you can see that the Bitcoin keeps testing for lower and lower points. The last mass selling on the 19th of August closed the market at $218,693 and even though the next day was bullish, there was not enough buying power to recover from such a deep drop.
We even touched the $211,050 area for a brief moment which likely indicates that another similar drop can happen in the coming days.
MACD and RSI oversold
The MACD and RSI indicators are both showing pretty extreme oversold conditions, but despite that Bitcoin is still falling further. This has lead me to believe that the suspicious drop to $194,922 was indeed some form of a price manipulation and the overall market has just started to react accordingly. It’s sad, but who can really blame the people when the Bitcoin price is so easily manipulated? All it takes is an entity with a big enough Bitcoin wallet.
Who owns the most Bitcoins? The FBI of course. We don’t want to say it, but we’re all thinking it… oh and just FYI, I am not blaming the feds for this one, it’s more likely the BTC-E who is responsible for the last insanely fast price drop. It didn’t happen on any of the other exchanger charts.
The BTC/USD has been in a consistent decline now for the last four days when the selling started back on 29th of July. As of right now things aren’t looking too good! We’re seeing signs of bullish reversal on the D1 time scale, which shouldn’t come as a surprise because we’re still in a very strong overall bear market when looking at the Monthly chart. However the Bollinger Bands breakout on 1W is giving hope for the mid-term.
Suspicious crash to $194.922
On the 18th of July there was a suspicious price drop all the way down to $194.922. The fact that this only happened on the BTC-E charts and nowhere else indicates some sort of a price manipulation might have occurred on that day. The price quickly recovered from the sell off, but it left a serious dent on the market for the near future. BTC-E might be directly responsible for this according to some posts on Bitcointalk.
As seen on the daily chart the BTC just made a perfect lower high which indicates a weakening buying power. I have no doubt its due to the shady as hell price drop just a couple of days prior. The trading volume itself is getting smaller, but the blackness of the candles is getting wider. That’s always a bad sign.
RSI is oversold
On a more positive note, the RSI has been hanging around the oversold area for some time now and if you take a look at the weekly chart, you’ll see that the trend line has crossed and opened upwards with the Bollinger Bands average. This, along with the breakout on contracting Bollinger Bands is giving hope for some bullish moves for the mid-term. It’s definitely not going to happen today, tomorrow or maybe even next week, but the signs of this being a mere correction and not reversal are still there for now.
265.002 is a key point
Right now the $265.002 USD per Bitcoin is a key support level for short term traders. If it holds, we can once again start looking for LONG positions to enter, but at this moment it’s best to either stay away or look for SHORT positions instead.
Since the 16th of July the price of Bitcoin has stayed under the daily pivot point indicating a bearish market in favor of SHORT orders. The initial “panic selling” seems to have subsided as we are now moving sideways around $271 USD per Bitcoin.
I’ve never been good with going SHORT, but I guess the massive selling spree got to me too as I have just closed a SHORT position in profit (that’s very rare for me). I am currently uncertain if it can go lower, but looking at the daily pivot points I can see almost two times more room in the downward direction, rather than upward direction. Does “more room” always mean it will go that way though?
Could go as low as $261
Around $261 I can see a support level that should by all intents and purposes hold for now. It’s likely we are going to test this area and it’s possible that we’re going to do this more than once. Breaking the 261-260 area would be a pretty grim outlook and I’d rather not speculate on this so early on, because the overall trend on the 1W chart is showing upward momentum. A lot can happen in short time scales though.
Yesterday around noon the Bitcoin started another bullish run following a repeating pattern and reaching as high as 298,912 USD per Bitcoin. A value last seen 5 months ago.
It seems that the uncertain times in Greece and in the world as a whole have had an impact on the price of Bitcoin as investors are starting to take the cryptocurrency more seriously.
More breathing room
The rally from yesterday has finally broaden the overall breathing space in BTC/USD which means that from now on we should see bigger, more serious price movement in both directions. And although the overall trend is clearly upwards, we must take into account the correction that occurs after almost every price increase- these will get bigger too!
For example when you look at the screenshot above, we have a pivot point at 282.038 and the first resistance is as far as 300.877. For months we haven’t had the chance to see such a broad breathing space.
300 is a strong resistance
The last time we broke the $300 USD level was in January 26– a long time ago! That, along with the fact that 300 is a bad ass number in itself, could mean that in the next few days we are going to see some serious struggle in breaking this psychological resistance level.
Bitcoin is gaining momentum
Even if we encounter hard resistance in the coming days, the Bitcoin is gaining enough momentum to eventually be able to defeat it. 317,750 and 336,589 are next!