In my earlier post I said Bitcoin is heading down. This theory was simply based on the Fibonacci’s sequence. However Technical Analysis in times like these is tricky.
Free money from the government
President Trump has announced that they will give every American $1000 for free in April. We all know the Federal Reserve has been printing more money to save the economy.
Which means a lot of new money is introduced to the pool. Which means the value of said money will go down. There’s just more of it around. So much so that the government is going to give it away for free? If that doesn’t make you stop and think what’s happening behind the scenes, I don’t know what will.
The way I see it, money will start to lose value. Not immediately, but in the coming months you will definitely feel it. Eventually the $1000 free money won’t feel like anything special. By that time a lot of smarter people would have already hopefully bought Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. This will naturally drive crypto up and as the value of money keeps decreasing, we might see an ATH in no time.
It’s going to get a lot worse soon
Let’s leave the imminent economic collapse aside for now and focus on the virus. I just read the article published by Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team and it looks fucking horrifying.
Based on their models the virus will peak around mid June and even if we isolate all cases, put people in home quarantine and socially distance ourselves, the current healthcare system will still be greatly outnumbered. There just won’t be enough beds available for what’s coming.
Yeah. Looks like summer is canceled. And if you are not taking it seriously, you are only hurting everyone else. I see a lot of people just chilling around town. Not wearing masks, not giving a fuck. This is not a vacation guys. We have been asked to stay at home and if we don’t, the next stage will be military on the streets and a full blown lockdown. Is that what you really want?
Longer time frames looking bullish
Weekly, daily and 4H look extremely bullish right now. Here’s my 1W view.
Notice how we are climbing towards the 0.618 resistance level at 7231.40 USD. Interestingly enough there is another Fibo level from the hourly view around 7104.16 USD. Further, the Relative Strength Index has still a long way to go on higher time frames.
Which makes me believe the current rally will take a break around those levels. $7k is a beautiful full number, so why not just chill out there? I’m not saying to exit, but it could be an important area to figure out what’s next. Although the probability of exiting there (for me) is around 70% depending on how fat or think the candles look.
$8k and up is a possibility
Should the 7231.40 be broken without any issue, the next level to look our for would be 8498.67 or the 0.5 Fibonacci resistance level. Historically this is one of the strongest levels and considered by some to be a trend maker. Depending on whether we bounce back or break through, it could set us up for some interesting action.
This post was written by ynef